Goldman Sachs says Hormuz disruptions slow Middle East oil recovery

Goldman Sachs warned that renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf could extend oil supply disruptions after previously forecasting a glut. The bank’s commodity analysts said Middle Eastern producers had reopened shut-in wells over the past month, but added that Hormuz disruptions could slow the production recovery.

They noted that Middle East oil production remains 10.5 million barrels daily below pre-war levels. “The recent attacks on tankers highlight still elevated risks of crossing, and shippers may hesitate to cross under the currently unclear ceasefire status, weighing on near-term Hormuz flows,” the analysts wrote, according to Bloomberg.

The bank said flows through the strait had recovered to 80 percent of pre-war levels before the latest escalation.

OilPrice.com reported the Goldman Sachs statement on July 9, 2026. The bank had issued its earlier glut warning one week prior.