Goldman Sachs updates oil price model after Hormuz traffic collapse

Goldman Sachs stated on July 21, 2026, that crude oil prices could reach $120 per barrel by the end of the year if the war in the Middle East continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The bank's commodity analysts said escalation in the Middle East and Persian Gulf flows falling below 45 percent of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices higher.

In early July, Goldman Sachs had warned of an oil glut in 2027, assuming traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would normalize.

Since the collapse of the June 2026 ceasefire, most vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz have operated with transponders off, according to ship-tracking data. The number of vessels attempting the passage is dwindling. Houthis in Yemen declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, calling it a maritime embargo in response to Saudi Arabia's siege of Yemen.

Saudi Arabia exports most of its oil from the Red Sea port of Yanbu via its East-West pipeline. WTI Crude was trading at $82.38 per barrel, down $0.10, as of 11 minutes before publication.