GOP Analysis Projects House Gains in New York Despite Low Trump Approval

A National Republican Campaign Committee analysis projects that Republican candidates will gain House seats in New York in November. The report links the outlook to Republican performance in recent local elections and to state-level issues.

The report highlights Republican wins in Nassau County last year, including an 11-point victory for Blakeman and a sweep of countywide offices. It notes that within the 3rd Congressional District, Blakeman carried the city of Glen Cove. In the 4th Congressional District, Republicans won every seat on the Long Beach City Council last year, giving the party full control of the council for the first time in 54 years.

A Siena College poll released last week found that 32 percent of New York voters view President Trump favorably and 63 percent view him unfavorably. In suburban areas where several House races are taking place, the figures were 33 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable.

Chairman Jay Jacobs dismissed the Republican analysis. He said the projection ignores current conditions and described it as unrealistic given President Trump's standing in the state. The analysis also notes that President Trump carried the 3rd District by 4.3 percentage points in 2024 and lost the 4th District by 0.5 percentage points.

It states that Hochul lost both districts to former Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2022 despite winning the statewide race by 6.4 points. In the 17th District, the report says two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler faces a competitive race. In the 19th District, Republican state Sen.

Peter Oberacker is challenging first-term Democratic incumbent Josh Riley, with the analysis claiming Oberacker's state Senate district covers 37 percent of the congressional district.