Gulf states consider new security options as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks advance

Washington and Tehran are advancing toward a long-term ceasefire agreement, according to reporting by Al Jazeera. Gulf states hosting U.S. military facilities have been targeted in Iranian attacks over the past four months. Between 40,000 and 50,000 U.S. troops were stationed in the region before the conflict began.

Gulf states At least 28 people have been killed across the six Gulf Cooperation Council states in suspected Iranian drone and rocket attacks since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28 February. Gulf states have stated that no attacks on Iran originated from their territory.

"Just the war itself has pierced that sense of security, the U.S. security umbrella is moribund at worst, or ineffective at best," Simon Mabon, professor of international relations at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera.

Economic effects and alternative routes The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted energy exports for several Gulf states. Saudi Arabia redirected some oil shipments through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, while Oman benefited from higher energy prices due to its ports lying outside the strait.

The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar experienced greater disruption because of their reliance on the waterway. New pipeline projects are underway, but their capacity remains far smaller than the strait itself.

Regional security discussions The UAE restored diplomatic ties with Iran in 2022, and Saudi Arabia and Iran normalized relations in 2023 under a China-brokered agreement. Officials in Tehran are reviewing a proposed Memorandum of Understanding with Washington.

"The recent war has opened the door wide to reconsidering the Gulf security system with its neighbours," Mahjoub Al-Zuwairi, an academic and expert on Middle East politics, told Al Jazeera. A mutual defence agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan last September provides one model for regional cooperation.