Gulf States Reassess U.S. Ties Amid Iran Conflict, Analysts Say

Gulf Arab states have experienced significant impacts from Iranian missile and drone strikes since the United States and Israel initiated military action against Iran on February 28, 2026. These attacks have targeted hotels, airports, and oil and gas infrastructure in the region.

Energy companies in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar have declared force majeure, stating they cannot fulfill contractual obligations due to the disruptions. The authors note that Gulf monarchs initially supported Trump's reelection for his transactional approach and disregard for human rights concerns in economic deals.

For instance, in May 2025, Saudi Arabia influenced Trump to lift sanctions on Syria and support its new president.

Despite visits from the Saudi crown prince and Emirati officials, Trump proceeded with the attacks, prioritizing requests from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The report states that this has highlighted Trump's unpredictability and the divergence between U.S. and Gulf interests.

Gulf states remain dependent on the United States for security, including missile defense systems like Patriot and THAAD, as well as hosting U.S. military bases. Countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are designated as major non-NATO allies, granting access to U.S. equipment and munitions.

However, the authors indicate that Gulf populations are questioning the reliability of U.S. commitments and the benefits of hosting American bases.

The report highlights concerns over Israel's actions, including a September 2025 strike on a residential compound in Qatar hosting Hamas negotiators. Following that incident, Trump issued an executive order committing to Qatar's defense. Despite U.S. assistance in intercepting some Iranian attacks, the focus has been on defending Israel, leaving Gulf states vulnerable.

To address these challenges, the authors suggest Gulf countries should enhance autonomy by strengthening regional cooperation and diplomacy. This includes creating new channels between competitors, forming partnerships beyond the United States, and integrating defense structures among themselves.

The current crisis has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged the region's reputation as a safe commercial hub. The report emphasizes that while Gulf states will continue short-term cooperation with the United States on missile defense and intelligence, they need to build a new regional equilibrium to limit escalation and protect economic growth.