finance
IEA Lowers Russia Oil Output Forecast for 2026 and 2027
The International Energy Agency reduced its 2026 and 2027 Russian oil supply projections after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged refineries, storage, and transport facilities. The agency cut its 2026 forecast by 85,000 barrels per day and its 2027 forecast by 150,000 barrels per day.
Jul 10, 9:30 AM·1m read2 sources
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The International Energy Agency lowered its Russian oil supply forecasts for 2026 and 2027 after Ukrainian drone attacks damaged energy infrastructure, the agency said in its monthly oil market report released Friday. Russia produced an average of 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA now projects 8.9 million barrels per day for 2026 and 8.8 million barrels per day for 2027.
Russia's crude oil production rose to 8.86 million barrels per day in June from 8.74 million barrels per day in May, according to the IEA. June output remained 910,000 barrels per day below Russia's implied OPEC+ target of 9.76 million barrels per day.
The agency attributed the weaker outlook to continued strikes on refineries, storage facilities, and transport infrastructure. It cut its Russian supply forecast for 2026 by 85,000 barrels per day and for 2027 by 150,000 barrels per day. "Continued strikes on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure underpin a weaker production outlook and we have accordingly cut our Russian supply outlook for this year and next, by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 bpd respectively, to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period," the IEA said.
Russia has increased crude oil exports in recent months as Ukrainian strikes on domestic refineries created a fuel shortage and prompted higher shipments abroad.
