IEA Predicts Europe Could Face Jet Fuel Shortages in Six Weeks Due to Strait of Hormuz Closure

Europe is facing a potential shortage of jet fuel within approximately six weeks as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to the ongoing Iran war. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated in a Thursday interview that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so" of jet fuel supplies left.

The IEA also indicated that several European countries may start experiencing jet fuel shortages in the coming six weeks.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which nearly 20% of the world’s traded oil passes in peacetime, has disrupted oil, gas, and other energy supplies. S. and Israeli military strikes and has implemented a "toll booth" system requiring some ships to pay fees for passage.

More than 110 oil-laden tankers and over 15 liquefied natural gas carriers are currently waiting in the Persian Gulf. The conflict has damaged over 80 key energy assets in the region, with more than one third severely or very severely affected. Birol stated that restoring pre-war production levels could take up to two years, even if a peace deal is reached.

The disruption has driven jet fuel prices in Europe to $1,838 per tonne at the beginning of April, more than double the pre-conflict price of $831 per tonne. Europe historically depends on the Middle East for roughly three-quarters of its jet fuel imports. EasyJet reported £25 million in additional fuel costs during March linked to the Middle East conflict.

Birol noted that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the end of May, many countries, especially those with weaker economies, will face significant challenges including high inflation, slow growth, or recession. He also warned that flight cancellations could occur soon due to jet fuel shortages, citing the possibility that some flights from city A to city B might be canceled if supplies are not restored.

The International Energy Agency, based in Paris and led by Birol since 2015, provides energy guidance to 32 member nations and continues to monitor the evolving crisis.