finance
IMF Projects 3 Percent Global Growth for 2026 After Energy Shock
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global growth projection to 3 percent from the 3.1 percent April estimate. The revision reflects higher energy prices after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in February. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2027.
Jul 8, 11:20 AM·1m read3 sources
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The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3 percent. The figure is down from 3.5 percent in 2025 and from the 3.1 percent projection the fund issued in April. The IMF attributed the revision to the energy shock from the Iran war.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on February 28 after U.S. and Israeli attacks. The waterway carries one-fifth of global crude oil and natural gas trade. The fund now projects oil prices will rise nearly 32 percent this year.
Global consumer prices are expected to increase 4.7 percent in 2026, up from 4.1 percent in 2025. The forecasts assume the strait will begin reopening later this month and that commerce will return to pre-conflict levels by March 2027. Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s research department, said the world economy has weathered the shock from the war better than feared.
The U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.3 percent in 2026. The 21 euro-area countries are forecast to expand 0.9 percent, China 4.6 percent, and India 6.4 percent.
