Indeed Report Projects U.S. Unemployment at 8% by 2040

U.S. unemployment rate to nearly 8% by 2040. The analysis identifies three converging trends behind the projected mismatch: the retirement of baby boomers, slower immigration, and AI-related changes to white-collar roles. Indeed Hiring Lab economist Laura Ullrich stated that two forces are colliding: AI technology shifts and the demographic shift that has been discussed for years.

Workplace expert Priya Rathod at Indeed advised employers to review job descriptions for unnecessary credential requirements and to prioritize transferable skills. Rathod said leaders should ask whether listed credentials are actually necessary rather than retained because they have always been used.

Rathod also recommended that employers invest in training current staff, noting that developing existing employees is faster and less expensive than recruiting new hires. Data cited in the report indicate that filling a vacant role can cost thousands of dollars when advertising, recruiting tools, and lost productivity are included.

Ullrich pointed to education, health care, manufacturing, and government as sectors facing high retirement rates and low AI displacement risk. She said employers in growing fields will need to recruit workers from adjacent occupations where skills overlap even if exact experience differs.

U.S. job postings. She advised workers to emphasize these skills on resumes and in interviews. Rathod said employees do not need to become AI experts immediately but should start with tools already used in daily tasks such as email and spreadsheets.

She noted that many workers already balance multiple jobs or caregiving responsibilities, making broad reskilling advice difficult to follow. Ullrich said the report is not forecasting a doomsday scenario. She stated that advance knowledge of the projected mismatch allows employers and workers to take steps that could prevent unemployment from reaching 8%.