India Advances Electrification at Lower GDP per Capita Than China

A new analysis from Ember suggests India is increasing its use of solar power and electric technologies at an earlier stage of economic development than China or the West. The report, written by Kingsmill Bond and Sumant Sinha, describes India's path as an "electrotech fast-track" that moves more directly toward electricity powered by solar, batteries and related technologies.

This contrasts with the historical pattern in which countries first relied heavily on fossil fuels before shifting to cleaner sources. India reached a 5 percent solar share in electricity generation at around $9,000 GDP per capita. China reached the same milestone at around $23,000 GDP per capita.

At roughly equivalent income levels, India generates about 205 kilowatt-hours of solar and wind electricity per person compared with China's 37 kilowatt-hours. Solar accounted for about 9 percent of India's electricity generation in 2025, up from around half a percent a decade earlier.

China had negligible solar generation at a similar income level in 2012.

China crossed 1,500 kilowatt-hours of electricity use per person in 2004, coal generation was about ten times cheaper than early solar photovoltaics. Coal supplied nearly 70 percent of the growth in China's electricity generation over the following decade.

India is reaching a similar stage when solar-plus-storage costs around half as much as new coal plants. The cost gap is widening as solar and battery prices continue to fall while coal plant utilization declines. Coal remains central to India's power system and electricity demand is projected to grow substantially.

The country faces challenges including grid bottlenecks, storage deployment, land acquisition, permitting and distribution company finances.

The International Energy Agency projects global energy investment will reach $3.3 trillion in 2025. About $2.2 trillion is expected to go toward renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification. IRENA data shows that in 2024, 91 percent of newly commissioned utility-scale renewable capacity delivered electricity at a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel alternative.

Solar PV was on average 41 percent cheaper and onshore wind 53 percent cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil option.

The report connects India's energy trajectory to international talks on transitioning away from fossil fuels. A conference in Santa Marta, Colombia, attended by 57 countries discussed national roadmaps, legal and financial obstacles, and the role of a new science panel. Reuters reported the Santa Marta talks marked a shift toward transforming economies to phase out fossil fuels.