India’s June Monsoon Rainfall Fifth-Driest on Record, Followed by Heavy Early-July Rains

National rainfall stood about 24 percent below average for the season as of July 19 after June monsoon rainfall ranked fifth-driest on record. The total fell almost 40 percent below normal levels. Early July brought a sudden shift when cities including Mumbai received about a month's worth of rain in a single week.

Raghuram Murtugudde, visiting professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland, described the change in distribution. “The number of rainy days and how they are distributed used to be smoother,” he said.

Murtugudde linked the pattern to global warming combined with El Niño. “Global warming combined with El Niño makes the atmosphere act like a sponge that soaks a lot of water and then pours it all in one place,” he said.