Iran Demonstrates Ability to Close Strait of Hormuz Despite Military Pressure

Iran has demonstrated it can close the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic even when facing significant military force, according to an article published May 6, 2026, in Foreign Affairs. The action has kept 20 percent of the global oil supply, 20 percent of the global supply of liquefied natural gas, and commodities including helium, aluminum, and urea trapped inside the Persian Gulf.

Despite a fragile cease-fire between the United States and Iran, dueling blockades have prevented most vessels from passing through the strait. U.S. efforts to evacuate ships have been met with renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, and very few ships have managed to transit.

Shippers have remained unwilling to cross the waterway due to uncertainty surrounding the cease-fire. The economic effects have already appeared. Shortages of fuels and other products have been reported in East Asia and Australia. Jet fuel prices have risen sharply, and global oil demand has fallen for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

In the United States, gasoline prices have exceeded $4 a gallon and could reach $5 by the end of May.

If the strait remains closed, rising inflation and slower GDP growth are expected in multiple economies. The article compares Iran's actions to the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which caused gasoline shortages in the United States and a 400 percent increase in global crude oil prices before being lifted in March 1974.

Iran began more than 20 attacks on ships in waters surrounding the strait after Feb. 28, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. These actions, combined with the placement of land mines and strikes on onshore targets in Gulf states, halted maritime traffic.

A month of heavy bombing by U.S. and Israeli forces did not reopen the strait, and naval escorts have proved difficult to organize because other countries have been reluctant to enter the conflict.

The article states that Iran's military capabilities have been degraded but not eliminated. It would require little effort for Iran to resume laying mines or conducting small-scale attacks to deter shippers in the future. Even if Iran does not establish a long-term toll system on the strait, the demonstrated ability to close it is expected to remain a factor for the global economy.

The United States will need to open the strait in the coming months through a combination of negotiations and pressure from its blockade to avoid a more severe economic crisis. Over the longer term, the article recommends that Washington build energy resilience, expand alternative shipping routes in Persian Gulf states, and accelerate the energy transition to reduce dependence on the strait.