Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Trails in Some Polls Ahead of October Election

Israeli voters will go to the polls by October 27 in an election that will test Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's standing after more than three decades leading the Likud party. A Channel 12 poll published Thursday found former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot at 38 percent and Netanyahu at 35 percent when respondents were asked who is most suitable to serve as prime minister.

The prime minister's reputation on security issues has come under renewed scrutiny following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Opposition parties have highlighted the continued presence of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah attacks that resumed in March, including shelling and drone strikes along the northern border.

Daniel Dorfman, a pizzeria owner near the Lebanon border, said he previously supported Netanyahu but is now considering other right-wing candidates such as Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman. Fifty-three percent of respondents in a separate Channel 12 poll said Netanyahu should not run in the upcoming election.

Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, stated that the inability to achieve decisive outcomes against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran has eroded support among some former Netanyahu voters.

Netanyahu maintains a core base of supporters who view him as the most experienced leader for managing multiple security threats. Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli political analyst and pollster, said this group reaches as high as 47 percent and values his skill in managing relationships with allies.

The prime minister's ability to retain power has depended on keeping coalition partners satisfied, including ultra-Orthodox parties that continue to seek exemptions from mandatory military service. Anshel Pfeffer, The Economist's Israel correspondent, noted that Netanyahu has repeatedly adjusted political rules to maintain his position despite lacking unified opposition leadership.