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Jury in Musk v. Altman Trial to Begin Deliberating Monday

The jury in the Oakland trial between Elon Musk and Sam Altman will begin deliberations following closing arguments on Thursday. Betting markets show declining odds for a Musk victory. The case centers on allegations that OpenAI deviated from its original nonprofit structure after Musk left the organization.

Semafor
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3 sources·May 15, 5:32 PM(14 days ago)·1m read
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Jury in Musk v. Altman Trial to Begin Deliberating MondaySemafor
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The jury in the Oakland trial between Elon Musk and Sam Altman will begin deliberating Monday after closing arguments were delivered on Thursday. Bettors on the Kalshi prediction market have lowered the odds of a Musk win to nearly 20 percent as of Friday, down from 58 percent at the start of the trial.

The market currently favors Altman and OpenAI as the prevailing parties. Musk alleged that OpenAI, which was founded as a nonprofit, was taken from him. The organization has since grown to hold significantly more resources than it possessed when Musk departed.

That growth occurred after OpenAI established a for-profit arm whose shares have reached valuations in the tens of billions of dollars. Musk has sought remedies that would affect both the for-profit and nonprofit components of the organization.

The proceedings made public a series of emails, text messages and diary entries involving senior figures at the companies. These materials have drawn attention to the internal dynamics among leaders of major technology firms. Semafor reported that regardless of the verdict, both sides have experienced losses in reputation and public standing.

The outlet noted that the case has provided material that critics of artificial intelligence have used to question the sector. The jury's deliberations are expected to address the contractual and governance disputes between the parties over OpenAI's evolution from its founding charter.

Key Facts

Jury deliberations
Begin Monday in Oakland courtroom
Kalshi betting odds
Musk win probability at 20 percent
Musk allegation
OpenAI deviated from nonprofit founding
OpenAI valuation
For-profit shares worth tens of billions

Story Timeline

3 events
  1. May 15, 2026

    Jury to begin deliberating in Musk v. Altman trial.

    1 sourceSemafor
  2. May 2026

    Closing arguments presented in Oakland courtroom.

    1 sourceSemafor
  3. May 2026

    Musk odds on Kalshi fall to nearly 20 percent.

    1 sourceSemafor

Potential Impact

  1. 01

    Trial evidence including emails and texts has been made public.

  2. 02

    Reputation of executives at both companies has been affected.

  3. 03

    Prediction market odds have shifted during proceedings.

  4. 04

    Material from the case has been referenced by AI critics.

Transparency Panel

Sources cross-referenced3
Confidence score65%
Synthesized bySubstrate AI
Word count231 words
PublishedMay 15, 2026, 5:32 PM
Bias signals removed4 across 2 outlets
Signal Breakdown
Editorializing 1Amplifying 1Loaded 1Speculative 1

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