Kearney Report Finds Trump's Tariffs Shifted Imports But Did Not Increase U.S. Reshoring

The White House stated last week that the policies are leading to a major wave of reshoring, citing promised investments by companies including Apple and U.S. Steel. A new report from Kearney, a global management consulting firm, assessed the tariffs' effects on U.S. manufacturing and trade.

The Kearney report stated that the tariffs did not lead to significant near-term increases in reshoring or reductions in overall U.S. import dependence. Imports from China fell by $135 billion last year relative to 2024, representing a 10 percent decline.

In contrast, imports from 13 other Asian countries increased by a total of $193 billion, indicating a shift in production to nations such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and India. Imports from Canada decreased by $25 billion last year, while imports from Europe rose by about $62 billion.

The report noted that much of the European import increase occurred in the first quarter, potentially due to companies accelerating shipments before the tariffs took effect. Overall U.S.-European trade declined for the remainder of the year.

Effects on U.S.

manufacturing has tripled since 2020, according to the Kearney report. However, this spending has resulted in only a 1.5 percent increase in U.S. manufacturing capacity. The report attributed the limited impact to factors including the time required to build new facilities and structural constraints such as labor costs, infrastructure limitations, and workforce availability.

The report highlighted a need for clarity and stability in policy to support reshoring. It stated that the tariffs have contributed to instability and uncertainty, along with higher costs for raw materials and rising inflation. These factors are creating challenges for efforts to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.