Kentucky Republican Primary Tests Trump Endorsement in House Race

Representative Thomas Massie will face Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19. The race has drawn national attention because of President Trump's endorsement of Gallrein and outside spending by several billionaires.

A May 11-12 survey by Quantus Insights found Gallrein leading Massie 53 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. An earlier Quantus Insights poll from April 6-7 showed Massie ahead 47 percent to 38 percent.

A Big Data Poll survey conducted April 3-7 gave Massie a 52.4 percent to 47.6 percent advantage.

Prediction markets currently favor Massie.

He holds a 64 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 65 percent chance on Polymarket. The district is considered solidly Republican, having supported President Trump by more than 35 points in the 2024 presidential election. Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek that Trump's endorsement has made the race more competitive.

Shauna Reilly, a political scientist at Northern Kentucky University, said recent weeks have shown a shift toward Gallrein amid increased advertising.

Massie's campaign reported raising $5.5 million in its pre-primary Federal Election Commission filing. Gallrein's campaign reported nearly $3.2 million in total receipts. Billionaires Paul Singer, John Paulson, and Mirian Adelson have donated to a pro-Gallrein political action committee called MAGA KY, while businessman Jeff Yass has supported a pro-Massie committee.

Massie supported a War Powers Resolution aimed at limiting military action against Iran and joined Representative Ro Khanna in efforts to release the Epstein files. The district includes Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati suburbs.