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The reservoirs held 12.7 million acre-feet combined on July 12. Forecasters said the North American monsoon will likely leave levels largely unchanged through September.
Lake Powell stood at 3,523.43 feet elevation and held 5.455 million acre-feet of water as of July 19, or 23 percent of capacity, according to Bureau of Reclamation data reported by Newsweek. Lake Mead reached 1,041.81 feet with 7. Total Colorado River system storage fell to 33 percent of capacity, down from 39 percent one year earlier.
The North American monsoon season, which runs from June 15 to September 30, is forecast to bring above-average precipitation to parts of the Southwest. The National Integrated Drought Information System said seasonal forecasts leaned toward above-average overall precipitation this summer.
The National Weather Service July 16 outlook assigned moderate to high confidence for above-normal precipitation in western New Mexico from July through September.
The monsoon is expected to have little effect on the reservoirs. Paul Miller, service coordination hydrologist at NOAA's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, said 85 to 95 percent of water feeding the Colorado River Basin comes from mountain snowpack.
"Summer monsoonal precipitation can provide some benefit, like allowing agriculture to utilize local rainfall instead of relying on deliveries from the Colorado River system, and that can provide some benefit to the basin, but it's relatively minimal and short-term in nature," Miller said.
Inflows to Lake Powell for water year 2026 are forecast at 36 percent of average. April-to-July snowmelt runoff is projected at 17 percent of normal after Upper Basin precipitation reached only 78 percent of normal levels. A group of Colorado River experts reported that combined storage in Lakes Powell and Mead fell to 12,675,509 acre-feet on July 12, the lowest total since May 1957.
Jack Schmidt of Utah State University called the milestone a significant moment. "We’ve never been in this position. We are truly in uncharted territory," Schmidt said. The Bureau of Reclamation projects Lake Powell at about 3,508 feet and Lake Mead at 1,037 feet by the end of 2026.
Current operating rules for the two reservoirs expire at the end of the year. Miller said filling the system would require at least five to six years of average inflow and zero water use. The agency is developing post-2026 guidelines for managing shortages.
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