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A report by market analyst Luke White examines six major market peaks and identifies a repeated four-stage progression. The analysis covers events from the South Sea Bubble through the Nasdaq peak in 2000 and Bitcoin in 2017.
BenzingaMarket analyst Luke White released a report outlining a four-stage sequence observed across six major historical market peaks. The report states that each peak followed the same mechanical progression regardless of the underlying narrative or asset class.
Stage one involves smart-money accumulation while broader markets remain skeptical. Examples listed include oil at $35 in 2020, silver near $5 in the late 1970s, and Bitcoin around $200 in 2015. Stage two occurs when the story reaches mainstream media, retail participation rises, and institutional investors begin reducing positions.
Stage three features a near-parabolic price advance. The report notes that this vertical phase compresses price action before the final stage. The analysis concludes that crashes typically result from the unwinding of leverage and crowd behavior rather than single external events.
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