Middle East Conflict Drives Up Jet Fuel Prices, Prompting Airline Adjustments to UK Routes

Airlines including KLM, Air Canada, Asiana Airlines, Delta Airlines, Lufthansa and SAS plan to operate fewer flights to the UK amid rising jet fuel prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. The price of flights has been increasing since the conflict began. In contrast, IAG, the owner of British Airways, along with EasyJet and Jet2Holidays, do not plan to alter their schedules.

Several carriers will start charging more for flights, including Air France-KLM, Indigo, IAG as owner of British Airways, Pakistan International Airlines, Thai Airways, Turkish Airlines-Sun Express and Virgin Atlantic. Low-cost Spanish regional airline Volotea will add a surcharge to tickets it has already sold.

Tour operators can add up to 8% to the cost of package holidays after booking based on a significant rise in fuel costs, according to Rory Boland, travel editor at consumer publication Which?.

The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed to shipping since the start of March, contributing to the fuel supply squeeze. Jet fuel prices roughly doubled during March and the first half of April. Airlines agree deals in advance to lock in lower prices, but longer term they will pay more for fuel.

Long-haul routes have seen the biggest fare increases, with flights from London to Melbourne in June now costing 76% more than last year, according to consultancy Teneo. Flights to Hong Kong are up 72% compared to last year, Teneo data shows. The squeeze on supply has pushed up jet fuel prices sharply, though airlines are not currently running short of fuel.

Spain's industry and tourism minister Jordi Hereu stated on 27 April that people should buy airline tickets as soon as possible in case fares are increased to cover higher jet fuel costs. He highlighted the element of price fluctuations due to airlines using previously purchased fuel.

Overall cancellations represent a very small proportion of the millions of flights in and out of the UK, Boland noted.

Airlines are likely to target cancellations on routes with multiple daily flights to facilitate rebooking passengers. Consumer rights groups are challenging Volotea's decision to add surcharges to already sold tickets. Independent consumer commentator Jane Hawkes said an airline or tour operator could only raise prices post-sale if specified in terms and conditions, though it is not standard practice.

Hawkes suggested being flexible over travel plans, including switching to road or rail or holidaying in the UK, and booking insurance for disruption coverage. She advised having a contingency pot, as claims for disruption costs can take months even when covered.

In cases of cancellation, airlines must get passengers to their destination or offer a refund, and provide food and accommodation for delays over a couple of hours under ordinary circumstances.

However, in situations like war or other events beyond airline control, extra compensation is not required. Airlines are pushing for clarity on whether fuel shortages from the current conflict qualify as extraordinary circumstances. For package holidays, tour operators should extend stays, offer alternatives or provide refunds if travel is disrupted, Boland said.

Most operators are promising not to add surcharges this year, according to Which?. The biggest rises in fares have been on long-haul routes via Asia forced to adapt flight paths to avoid the Gulf.