Middle East Conflicts Increase Ship Strike Risks for Whales off South Africa

Conflicts in the Middle East have prompted large-scale rerouting of commercial shipping around South Africa, substantially increasing risks of ship strikes on whales in habitats off the country's southwestern coast. The diversion away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which began in late 2023, has led to an average of 89 commercial vessels sailing around southern Africa between March 1 and April 24 this year.

That compares with 44 vessels over the same period in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund's PortWatch monitor. The fastest traffic, which poses the greatest strike risk, has increased by a factor of four. South Africa's southwestern coast supports globally significant populations of whales as well as increasingly busy shipping corridors.

This extensive spatial overlap amplifies the chances of collisions, according to a paper presented to an International Whaling Commission meeting this month by researchers from the University of Pretoria's whale unit.

Some global sea traffic was diverted following attacks in the Red Sea region that began in November 2023. Subsequent developments, including actions that blocked transit through the Strait of Hormuz, prompted shipping companies to send more vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

Environmental scientists and activists have highlighted the dangers that maritime traffic poses to sea mammals. Videos posted on social media from cargo vessels passing through high densities of humpback whales have drawn particular concern, as the vessels appear unaware of striking animals preoccupied with feeding.

"There have been videos of people on cargo vessels that were going through high densities of humpback whales," Els Vermeulen, lead researcher of the University of Pretoria whale unit, told AFP. " The animals have not had time to adapt to the increased shipping, said Chris Johnson, global lead of WWF's Whale and Dolphin Conservation initiative.

Blue whales off Los Angeles, for example, merely sink below the surface when they hear a ship rather than moving away.

Superpods of humpback whales began feeding seasonally off South Africa's increasingly busy west coast since 2011, according to blue economy consultant Ken Findlay, who contributed to the report. Collisions are largely underreported yet represent a major cause of mortality for whales, according to a 2024 paper in the journal Science.

Few protection measures exist for species still recovering from the era before the 1986 international whaling ban. The report presented to the International Whaling Commission states that modest shifts pushing traffic lanes further offshore could reduce strike exposure by 20-50 percent for certain whale species.

Such changes would add only about 20 nautical miles to journeys that often exceed 10,000 nautical miles.

The world's largest shipping company, Swiss-based MSC, has already rerouted ships in other regions including off Greece and Sri Lanka to protect whales. Additional solutions could include alerting vessels to the presence of whale superpods via an app or radio message, according to Estelle van der Merwe, head of the Ocean Action Network NGO.

Research is also underway into AI-enabled cameras on vessels. All available solutions and mitigation measures will be examined, South Africa's environment ministry said in a statement. "Once the scientific studies and assessments have been completed, the maritime authorities will be on the front line, alongside the DFFE, to chart the way forward," the ministry said.

“The fastest traffic, which poses the greatest strike risk, has increased by a factor of four.”

“The animals haven't had time to adapt to shipping.”