Morgan Stanley Raises China Humanoid Robot Shipment Forecast to 50,000 Units

Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments to 50,000 units for 2026, nearly double its prior projection of 28,000 units. The bank had already doubled its January estimate of 14,000 units. It now expects annual shipments to reach 446,000 units by 2030, with the market valued at $15 billion.

The revised outlook reflects faster movement from demonstration projects to commercial use in factories, stores, and restaurants. Morgan Stanley's supply-chain research showed quicker adoption in logistics and unmanned retail settings. The forecast covers only external sales and excludes units made for prototypes or internal testing.

Beijing has designated embodied AI as a priority for the next five years. Local governments are providing land and office space to startups, and banks have been directed to offer favorable lending terms. Chinese manufacturers are scaling production and testing robots in real-world environments.

Last year, worldwide shipments totaled about 13,000 units, with Chinese firms holding the top five positions by volume.

Stanley raised its 12-month price target on Shanghai-listed Leaderdrive to 464 yuan from 269 yuan. The Suzhou firm supplies precision components to domestic humanoid makers and could reach 40 percent global market share this year, according to the bank.

Seer Intelligent, a Shanghai robotics company that began trading in Hong Kong on Wednesday, reported that overseas sales from more than 65 countries accounted for 18 percent of revenue last year. Its chief operating officer said the firm is pursuing geographic diversification and regulatory compliance to manage trade risks.