Morgan Stanley Strategist Projects S&P 500 Earnings Through 2028

Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson released earnings-per-share forecasts for the S&P 500 extending through 2028 in a mid-year outlook note published earlier this month. Wilson projected 2026 EPS at $339, representing 23 percent growth from the prior year. He then forecast 2027 EPS at $380, an increase of 12 percent, followed by 2028 EPS at $429, an increase of 13 percent.

Wilson cited positive operating leverage, continued AI adoption, improving pricing power, and sustained AI capital-expenditure momentum as the main factors supporting the outlook. The 2028 estimate is two dollars above the current consensus projection of $427 per share.

Wilson noted that he correctly anticipated margin expansion from operating leverage three years earlier. The strategist added that long-term stock prices are primarily driven by expected future earnings.