science
NBER simulation finds GLP-1 drugs could cut lifetime medical costs but most health plans do not cover them for weight loss
A National Bureau of Economic Research simulation projects lifetime medical savings from sustained GLP-1 treatment for obesity. The study also notes that most health plans do not cover the drugs for weight loss.
Jun 14, 4:00 AM·2m read1 source
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A National Bureau of Economic Research simulation estimates that adults who begin GLP-1 treatment for obesity between ages 25 and 30 could save up to $270,800 in lifetime medical bills. U.S. adult population age 25 and older: no GLP-1 use versus sustained use for individuals with a BMI above 30.
People ages 40 to 50 saved an average of $192,735 in lifetime medical costs under the sustained-use scenario, according to the NBER report. Adults in that age group without college degrees saved $220,000, while college-educated adults saved $163,000. People without college diplomas overall saved between $219,000 and $220,000.
The 40-to-50 age group currently shows the highest observed rates of GLP-1 use. More than 40 million Americans have reported using the drugs for weight loss, and the market for such drugs could reach $240 billion. Felipe Montano-Campos, the study’s lead author, said the drugs produce a positive treatment effect for everyone but deliver the largest savings for lower-educated individuals.
He noted that GLP-1 medications target appetite and metabolism directly, reducing reliance on diet and exercise regimens that can be difficult to maintain for people working multiple jobs or facing time constraints. Fatima Cody Stanford, an obesity medicine physician at Massachusetts General Hospital, said full health benefits require paying at least hundreds of dollars per month indefinitely.
Stanford said patients who stop the drugs experience weight regain and re-emergence of the cardiometabolic conditions the medications were intended to treat.
The average American taking GLP-1s approved for weight management pays $350 to $450 per month, Stanford said. Wegovy without insurance typically costs $1,350 per month, while TrumpRx lists it for $349 to $399 per month for direct-to-consumer purchase. Montano-Campos acknowledged that the simulation assumes lifetime access and does not account for discontinuation due to cost or side effects.
