NBER study estimates lifetime medical savings from GLP-1 obesity drugs but notes most plans do not cover them

A National Bureau of Economic Research study estimated that adults aged 40 to 50 who used GLP-1 drugs for obesity saved an average of $192,735 in lifetime medical bills. Adults in the same age group without college degrees saved $220,000, while college-educated adults in that range saved $163,000.

U.S. Adult population aged 25 and older under two scenarios: no GLP-1 use versus sustained GLP-1 use for individuals with BMI above 30. The study defined obesity as BMI above 30 and used standard health economics methods to convert health improvements and cost reductions into dollar values.

Savings reached up to $270,800 for individuals who began GLP-1 use between ages 25 and 30.

The 40-50 age group currently shows the highest observed rates of GLP-1 use. Lead author Felipe Montano-Campos said the findings show that GLP-1s produce positive treatment effects across groups but deliver the largest gains for lower-educated individuals.

He noted that the drugs target appetite and metabolism directly, which can help people with multiple jobs or lower socioeconomic status who lack time for gym visits or healthier food purchases.

Over 40 million Americans have reported using GLP-1 drugs for weight loss, and the market for these drugs could reach $240 billion. The study did not account for discontinuation due to cost or side effects, both of which affect long-term outcomes. Fatima Cody Stanford, an obesity medicine physician at Massachusetts General Hospital, said patients must continue the medications indefinitely to maintain benefits.