NOAA Declares El Niño Has Arrived

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that El Niño conditions have formed in the eastern tropical Pacific. The agency defines the pattern by sea-surface temperatures that remain at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above average for three consecutive months in a defined Pacific region. Recent measurements crossed that threshold after a rapid temperature rise.

Niño typically raises the chance of wetter conditions in the U.S. Southwest and lowers the chance of an active Atlantic hurricane season. The same shift increases drought likelihood in Indonesia and the Sahel region of Africa. The pattern also releases stored ocean heat into the atmosphere, adding to global temperatures already at record levels.

NOAA assigns a 63 percent chance that this event will exceed the 3.6-degree-Fahrenheit threshold used to classify a super El Niño. Some climate models project anomalies above 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Past super El Niño events in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2023-24 produced widespread effects including flooding, severe drought, and coral-reef damage.

The current global temperature baseline is the highest in recorded history, which may amplify the additional warming released by the ocean during this event.