NOAA Declares El Niño Underway, Forecasts Strong Event with Mixed Regional Impacts

U.S. weather forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA’s most recent calculations show a high likelihood of a “very strong” El Niño, meaning average surface temperatures in the Pacific jump by more than 2 degrees Celsius.

Meteorologists have warned that this could be the strongest El Niño this century. The pattern typically occurs every two to seven years and, beginning in the summer, peaks around December or the following January. The last El Niño occurred in 2023 and 2024.

It was one of the five strongest El Niños ever recorded, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and is considered to have contributed to the historic temperatures in 2024, making it the hottest year on record. Droughts driven by the 2023-2024 El Niño across southern Africa contributed to increased food insecurity and malnutrition in several countries.

In 1877, one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded was associated with historic droughts across Asia, as well as in parts of Brazil and northern Africa.

The 1877 El Niño-associated famines resulted in upwards of 50 million fatalities, said Deepti Singh, an associate professor at Washington State University. El Niño conditions are expected to impact a number of growing areas, adding to setbacks for agricultural producers who have faced higher input costs stemming from the Iran War.

The passage of the Strait of Hormuz closed this spring, leading to fertilizer shortages and price hikes.

India is projected to have a weaker monsoon season, which could reduce rice yields. Drier, hotter conditions could lead to diminished maize production in southern Africa. S. states, from California all the way to the eastern seaboard, will experience a wetter year than normal, which could lead to flooding and upend crop production.