NOAA Forecasts Below-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2026

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its seasonal outlook for the Atlantic, giving a 55% chance of a below-average hurricane season. The agency forecasts 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 of them becoming hurricanes and 1 to 3 of those intensifying to major hurricanes. A normal season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

A developing El Nino that is forecast to become strong will likely reduce storm formation, federal and outside meteorologists said. There is a 98% chance that an El Nino will develop this summer and an 80% chance it will be moderate or strong, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said Thursday.

El Nino conditions suppress Atlantic storms through increased wind shear that can disrupt thunderstorm formation and prevent intensification, University at Albany atmospheric scientist Brian Tang said.

Eighteen other groups, private and academic, have also issued forecasts and most call for below-average activity. Those forecasts average a dozen named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Colorado State University is predicting the lowest overall activity since 2015, which was the strongest El Nino in the last 75 years, and that forecast is likely to be revised lower in June, said Colorado State's hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.

Atlantic hurricane seasons when an El Nino reaches strong or very strong status have two-thirds the named storms and half the hurricanes of the 1991-2020 average, according to an Associated Press analysis of storm and El Nino statistics. The eastern Pacific hurricane season started May 15 and the Atlantic season begins June 1 and both end November 30.