NOAA Releases Summer Temperature Outlook for 2026

A forecast released May 21 shows above-normal temperatures favored across the West, much of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and East for June through August. The outlook assigns the highest confidence for above-normal readings to the Pacific Northwest. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for a majority of Alaska.

Midwest appear in white on the map, labeled equal-chances. Officials stated these areas have weak climate signals and therefore equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal seasonal temperatures. A more variable temperature pattern is expected in the Midwest, with a slight tilt toward below-normal readings later in the summer and into early fall.

A developing El Niño is projected to strengthen through the rest of 2026. Forecasters said this pattern should increase eastern Pacific hurricane activity while keeping the Atlantic season below average overall. The same El Niño influence is cited for raising above-normal temperature probabilities above 50 percent across the northern tier of the contiguous United States from December 2026 through February 2027.