North Carolina Senate Race Closer Than Many Polls Suggest

A new analysis of North Carolina polling suggests the state’s Senate race is closer than many recent surveys have indicated. The polling firm J.L. Partners applied a modeling technique that allocates undecided voters to one candidate or the other based on factors such as party registration and past voting behavior.

Most pollsters simply discard undecided respondents. The firm’s approach, which accurately projected a 53-47 Republican Senate majority in 2024, shows the race within the margin of error or even favoring the Republican in some surveys. In one Carolina Journal poll, the analysis reduced an 8-point Democratic lead to a result inside the four-point margin of error.

The firm’s co-founder said that in 2024 the analysis revealed undecided Senate voters were more likely to have supported the Republican presidential candidate. That pattern is repeating this cycle. In the North Carolina Senate race, 45 percent of undecided voters backed the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 while 32 percent supported the Democratic nominee.

Background on the Race North Carolina is viewed as a must-win state for Democrats seeking to flip Senate control. The seat is currently held by a Republican who chose not to seek a third term. With limited other pickup opportunities, failure to win North Carolina would leave Democrats without a path to the majority.

The contest features a two-term former governor with a strong fundraising network against a Republican described as a close ally of President Trump. Some forecasts project the race could become the first billion-dollar Senate contest in history. The Democratic candidate has raised substantially more money so far, pulling in $13.8 million in the first quarter compared with $5 million for the Republican, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

A campaign spokesman for the Republican said the analysis matched what the campaign is observing on the ground. The Democratic campaign declined to comment.

Accuracy of the Polling Model J.L.

Partners was also the most accurate firm in predicting the 2024 presidential election, according to the analysis. Its models tended to identify hidden Republican support that other pollsters missed. The firm’s co-founder noted there is still a long way until the November election and that the overall picture for Republicans remains difficult.

He added that a hidden dynamic similar to 2024 could still produce surprises in certain races, particularly in North Carolina. The race is expected to remain competitive as hundreds of millions of dollars are spent over the next six months.