politics
North Carolina Senate Race Closer Than Many Polls Suggest
A new analysis that reallocates undecided voters finds the North Carolina Senate contest essentially tied within the margin of error. The polling firm’s method, which correctly projected the 2024 Senate makeup, shows Republican support stronger among undecided voters than most surveys indicate. Democrats must win the state to regain Senate control.
May 13, 11:45 AM·2m read1 source
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A new analysis of North Carolina polling suggests the state’s Senate race is closer than many recent surveys have indicated. The polling firm J.L. Partners applied a modeling technique that allocates undecided voters to one candidate or the other based on factors such as party registration and past voting behavior.
Most pollsters simply discard undecided respondents. The firm’s approach, which accurately projected a 53-47 Republican Senate majority in 2024, shows the race within the margin of error or even favoring the Republican in some surveys. In one Carolina Journal poll, the analysis reduced an 8-point Democratic lead to a result inside the four-point margin of error.
The firm’s co-founder said that in 2024 the analysis revealed undecided Senate voters were more likely to have supported the Republican presidential candidate. That pattern is repeating this cycle. In the North Carolina Senate race, 45 percent of undecided voters backed the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 while 32 percent supported the Democratic nominee.
Background on the Race North Carolina is viewed as a must-win state for Democrats seeking to flip Senate control. The seat is currently held by a Republican who chose not to seek a third term. With limited other pickup opportunities, failure to win North Carolina would leave Democrats without a path to the majority.
The contest features a two-term former governor with a strong fundraising network against a Republican described as a close ally of President Trump. Some forecasts project the race could become the first billion-dollar Senate contest in history. The Democratic candidate has raised substantially more money so far, pulling in $13.8 million in the first quarter compared with $5 million for the Republican, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
