politics
NRCC Internal Polling Shows Republicans Competitive in Five Democratic-Held Districts
The National Republican Congressional Committee released its first internal polling of the 2026 cycle showing Republican candidates competitive in five districts held by Democrats that President Trump won in 2024. The poll found a Republican candidate leading in two districts and the races within the margin of error in the other three.
May 8, 3:40 PM·1m read1 source
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The polling, conducted from April 25 to 29 with margins of error between 3.12 and 3.5 percentage points, is the first released by the NRCC this cycle. NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson said in a statement that the findings support a strategy focused on expanding the map of competitive seats.
"House Democrats are staring down a political buzzsaw in districts that already rejected their party at the top of the ticket last cycle," Hudson said. In Washington’s 3rd District, the Republican candidate led the Democratic incumbent 41 percent to 34 percent.
The remaining three districts showed closer results. In Texas’s 34th District, the Republican candidate held a one-point lead at 41 percent to 40 percent. A spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dismissed the polling. “No matter how Republicans try to manipulate push polling on the House battlefield, they can’t stop the inevitable — we are taking back the House in November,” the spokesperson said.
Context for 2026 Midterms The polling release comes as Republicans hold the majority in the House following the 2024 elections. Midterm elections have historically presented challenges for the party holding the White House, though the NRCC argues its data shows an opportunity to expand that majority.
Internal polling conducted by party committees is frequently more favorable to that party's candidates than independent surveys. The NRCC described the results as evidence that its candidates are positioned to challenge incumbents in districts that supported Trump at the presidential level.
