Obamacare plan premiums projected to rise 14 percent in 2027

Projected premium rates for Obamacare marketplace plans show a median increase of 14 percent for 2027, according to an analysis of filings from 77 insurance companies. The data cover submissions to 16 states and the District of Columbia. The same analysis found that 47 companies expect increases between 10 percent and 20 percent, while 20 companies project increases above 20 percent.

These figures are early projections; final rates will be released later this summer.

Background on recent premium changes Last year the median premium rose 20 percent, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit increases. If current projections hold, typical premiums will have risen more than one-third over two years. The enhanced federal subsidies that lowered costs for households earning above four times the federal poverty level expired after 2025.

As of January, subsidies are available only to those earning below that threshold, roughly $62,000 for an individual.

Enrollment and cost drivers The Department of Health and Human Services reported last month that about 3 million people have left Obamacare plans this year. Officials attributed the drop to enforcement against fraudulent enrollments. Insurance companies cited rising costs for hospital care, physician visits, and prescription drugs as the main reasons for higher premiums.

Workforce shortages that increase staffing expenses were also listed as a factor. A 40-year-old in Indianapolis earning $65,000 saw a subsidized monthly premium rise from $316 in 2025 to $477 in 2026 and is projected to pay $546 in 2027.