Obamacare Premiums Projected to Rise 14 Percent in 2027 as Enrollment Falls to 19.2 Million

Obamacare individual-market premiums are projected to rise by a median of 14 percent in 2027, according to a KFF analysis of preliminary rate filings from 77 health plans in 16 states and the District of Columbia. The increase would mark the second consecutive year of double-digit premium growth in the individual market.

Insurers attribute the hikes to a 10 percent rise in the underlying cost of medical care and prescription drugs for 2027, up from an average 8 percent annual growth in prior years, and to the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.

Individuals with income above 400 percent of the federal poverty level, roughly $64,000 for a single person, will not qualify for subsidies. Enrollment in ACA marketplaces fell by about 3 million people year over year to 19.2 million, federal data released last month showed.

Insurers estimate that the resulting sicker risk pool drove premiums up by roughly four percentage points in 2026 and will cause a similar increase in 2027.

Emma Wager, senior policy analyst for KFF's Program on the ACA, stated that a decline in enrollment coupled with a big spike in premiums are not comforting signs, though she added that for now the market is holding strong overall. The total of 19 million enrollees remains higher than any year before 2024.

The Trump administration attributes the enrollment drop to improper and fraudulent enrollments and states it is cracking down on them.

An HHS report last month stated that the administration has utilized numerous tools mobilizing a full-scale effort to ensure federal subsidies are going only to those for whom they are intended.