Ocasio-Cortez Leads 2028 Democratic Primary Poll for First Time

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads a crowded field of potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential nomination in a new national poll by AtlasIntel, the first survey to show her in first place. The poll found 26 percent of respondents would vote for Ocasio-Cortez in the primary.

Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg received 22.4 percent support, California Governor Gavin Newsom received 21.2 percent and former Vice President Kamala Harris received 12.9 percent. No other candidate reached double digits. AtlasIntel surveyed 2,069 U.S. adults from May 4-7 2025.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

AtlasIntel was ranked the most accurate polling company for the 2024 election by Nate Silver and was previously named the most accurate pollster for the 2020 election by 538. Early polls do not always predict final outcomes but can influence donor decisions, media coverage and candidate viability assessments.

The survey arrives as the 2028 field takes shape, with potential candidates expected to begin testing messages and visiting early primary states after the 2026 midterms. Campaigns could be formally announced as early as 2027. Newsweek reached out to leading Democrats named in the poll for comment.

The poll was released days after Ocasio-Cortez addressed speculation about a presidential run during a conversation with David Axelrod. She has not confirmed any plans to seek the presidency and has also been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate.

Ocasio-Cortez said her focus remains on policy goals rather than personal advancement. "My ambition is to change this country," she said. She added that presidents and elected officials come and go but policies such as single-payer healthcare endure.

Other recent polls have shown different results. A Harvard/Harris poll released in April found Harris with 50 percent support among Democrats, followed by Newsom at 22 percent. In that survey Ocasio-Cortez received 8 percent support. A YouGov poll conducted in April showed Harris at 24 percent, Newsom at 12 percent, with Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg each at 9 percent.

Those surveys measured support among registered voters and adults respectively and carried margins of error between 1.87 and 2.8 percentage points. Prediction markets currently assign lower probabilities to Ocasio-Cortez winning the Democratic nomination than to some other potential candidates.