Oil Prices Rise; US-Iran Talks Stall, Hezbollah Rejects Israel-Lebanon Deal

Sheikh Naim Qassem categorically rejected the U.S.-brokered negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, stating they "do not exist for us" and warning that the outcomes would not benefit Lebanon. The statement complicates the tenuous ceasefire in the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which President Trump extended by three weeks last week.

Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group, has been excluded from the talks, and its forces have engaged in crossfire with Israel. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said he would not accept a "humiliating agreement" with Israel and accused those who drew Lebanon into war of "treason," in an implicit rebuke to Hezbollah.

Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire, with at least 14 killed in Israeli airstrikes on Sunday, the deadliest day since the April 17 truce, per Le Monde. and Israel launched operations against Iran on February 28, at least 3,375 people have been killed in Iran and 2,509 in Lebanon, according to local health authorities.

Israel reports 23 deaths domestically, with additional fatalities in allied Gulf states from Iranian strikes. Fifteen Israeli soldiers, 13 U.S. service members, and six U.N. peacekeepers have also died. The parallel Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalated two days after the Iran war began, following rocket attacks by the group.

The Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, disrupting about a fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies. Analysts at BNP Paribas noted the closure could broadly affect supply chains for products from plastics to medicine if prolonged. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic pressure as elections loom, with rivals Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announcing a merger of their parties to challenge his coalition.

The stalled diplomacy has fueled inflation concerns, with U.K. officials set to discuss living cost impacts in an emergency meeting on Tuesday.