Oil Prices Remain Above $100 as Ceasefire Holds in Iran Conflict

S. " The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since shortly after the war started on 28 February, severely disrupting global supplies of oil and gas. A ceasefire announced in early April to allow time for peace talks came into effect on 8 April and has been mostly observed despite occasional exchanges of fire.

-Israeli attacks on Iran. Washington's terms had included restoration of free transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension on Iranian nuclear enrichment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war with Iran will not be over until its enriched uranium stockpiles are taken out.

Brent crude has risen back above $100 a barrel since the ceasefire came into effect on 8 April. JP Morgan expects oil to remain in the low $100s for most of the rest of this year, averaging $97 for 2026 as a whole. The bank said supplies of oil in the region would not return to normal service quickly and the bottleneck would likely shift from the Strait itself to tanker availability, refinery ramp-ups and wider logistical constraints.

Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, said the oil market will take until next year to normalize if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted. "If the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will still take months for the market to rebalance, and if its opening is delayed by a few more weeks, then normalisation will last into 2027," he said.

" Aramco's earnings jumped by more than 25% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period in 2025.

BP reported that its profits for the first three months of the year had more than doubled. Shell announced its earnings had jumped. 04 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey.