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One Nation Leads Primary Vote but Labor Holds 51-49 TPP Lead in Latest Australian Poll

A Redbridge Group/Accent Research survey shows One Nation at 31% primary support. Labor leads 51-49 on two-party preferred.

The Guardian
Abc
2 sources·May 31, 9:29 PM(1 hr ago)·1m read
One Nation Leads Primary Vote but Labor Holds 51-49 TPP Lead in Latest Australian Pollsbs.com.au
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Developing·Limited corroboration so far. This page will refresh as more sources emerge.

One Nation recorded 31% primary vote support in a Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll published Monday by The Australian Financial Review, four points higher than the previous survey. Labor stood at 28%, three points lower than a month earlier, while the Coalition fell two points to 20%. The Greens dropped one point to 12%, and support for other parties rose two points to 9%.

4%. On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor led One Nation 51% to 49%. Federal aged care minister Sam Rae said every person classified as urgent priority for the Support at Home program now receives funding within one month.

High-priority wait times have fallen to between one and two months, a fortnight shorter than before. Medium-priority cases now wait six to seven months, down from eight to nine months previously. Standard priority aged care cases currently wait seven to eight months, compared with 10 to 11 months in November last year.

The median wait for an aged care assessment remains under one month, and in-hospital assessments continue to take less than one day. “While we know there’s much more to do, these numbers are encouraging signs our methodical work to secure more care for more older Australians than ever is shifting the dial,” Rae said. Free public transport in Victoria ended on Sunday after two months.

Residents remain eligible for 20% off vehicle registration and half-price public transport until the end of the year.

Transparency

Clean fact-based rewrite with neutral numbers and minimal loaded language; minor valence skew remains in positive framing of government aged-care improvements.

Valence skew: Rae's self-congratulatory quote presented without challenge or counterpoint

How else this could be read

The same numbers could be read as confirmation that Pauline Hanson's One Nation has peaked at 31% primary support with no path to government, while Labor maintains its two-party-preferred lead and continues to deliver measurable improvements in aged-care wait

Confidence65%

2 independent outlets report the same core facts. This score blends how many outlets corroborate, their editorial tier, and how closely their facts agree — it measures corroboration, not proof.

Source ideological mix
Left 2Center 0Right 0

Sources framed at 65 → our rewrite 18. We stripped 47 points of framing the sources carried in.

Story details

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