One Nation's David Farley Wins Farrer By-Election

One Nation candidate David Farley won the by-election held in the Farrer electorate on Saturday night, becoming the party's first ever elected federal MP. As counting continued on Saturday night, One Nation's primary vote in the Farrer by-election was hovering in the low-40s. Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe was on track to secure about a quarter of first preferences.

Pauline Hanson stood alongside David Farley on stage at the Bended Elbow in Albury to celebrate the victory. "It's a win for the rest of Australia," Hanson declared. The result delivered a sharp rebuke to the Liberal Party in an electorate that has known nothing but Coalition representation for its entire history and has been a Liberal stronghold for the last 25 years.

Sussan Ley is the now retired member for Farrer after losing the Liberal leadership to Angus Taylor in February. Just down the road at the Commercial Club, which served as the Liberal Party's headquarters for the by-election, the mood was one of resigned acceptance. Angus Taylor has spent the better part of his first three months as Liberal leader playing down the party's chances in Farrer.

"For too long we have been a party of convenience, not conviction and that must change," Taylor said following the result. " She quoted that on the day the leadership spilled in February, the new leader said the Liberal Party needed to 'change or die'.

Nationals leader Matt Canavan observed that One Nation's run at Farrer was a "bit of a free kick" shortly after the polls closed on Saturday night.

One Nation's primary vote is currently in the mid-20s nationally according to public polls, giving the Coalition less than two years to chip away at it before the 2028 election. David Farley made a comment about migration during the by-election campaign that departed from Pauline Hanson's hardline stance.

The result comes as former Nationals leader turned One Nation recruit Barnaby Joyce has spent the past six months demonstrating how a more traditional conservative can operate within the party.

Abc reported that angry voters in the regional NSW electorate appeared ready to inflict electoral pain on the major parties, with the absence of a Labor candidate on the ballot mattering little to the outcome. The shift highlights deepening anti-major party sentiment that previously swept away Liberal MPs in inner cities in 2022 through so-called teal independents.

One Nation is now touting the Farrer victory as a blueprint for success in regional areas.

The Coalition's decision to preference One Nation above Milthorpe drew divided internal reactions, with some viewing it as strategic pragmatism and others as giving ground to a long-time opponent. The idea that Farley may prove a more beatable opponent in 2028 draws from past patterns of One Nation MPs facing internal brawling, though Barnaby Joyce's recent experience suggests such fracturing may be less reliable.

Senior Liberal sources described the Farrer numbers as about as bad as expected.