One Nation Wins Farrer Byelection as Coalition Support Collapses in Rural NSW

Polling booth results from the Farrer byelection show One Nation built its victory in small farming communities and rural towns across the Murray River Valley and southern NSW Riverina. In the remote community of Blighty, the local school polling booth recorded 101 of 113 votes, or about 90 per cent, flowing to One Nation candidate David Farley after preferences.

The analysis of booth-level data indicates Farley pulled ahead of community independent Michelle Milthorpe, who recorded her strongest results in Albury, the seat’s largest city with a population of 60,000. Neither the Liberal nor National parties were among the top two candidates, the first time in more than 50 years that major parties have not occupied those positions in the electorate.

Falls to 22 Per Cent The combined primary vote for the Coalition parties was just over two in 10, with the Liberals on 12 per cent and the Nationals on 10 per cent. This left almost eight in 10 voters choosing other candidates. Every booth that delivered the strongest result for the former Liberal member a year earlier recorded large swings against the Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski.

In Euston, a town of roughly 500 people, the Liberal primary vote fell from 66 per cent to 11 per cent while One Nation’s share rose from 7 per cent to 49 per cent. Similar collapses occurred in Murray Downs, where the Liberal vote dropped from 63 per cent to 8 per cent, and in Coleambally, where it fell from 62 per cent to 7 per cent as One Nation climbed from 5 per cent to 57 per cent.

Voting patterns in the byelection continued to reflect an urban versus rural divide. One Nation dominated small rural booths while Milthorpe performed best in urban areas. In Albury, Milthorpe received 41 per cent of the primary vote across 14 booths covering about 32,000 votes, ahead of One Nation on 34 per cent, the Liberals on 16 per cent and the Nationals on 8 per cent.

On the two-candidate-preferred count in Albury, Milthorpe led Farley 52.3 per cent to 47.7 per cent. Milthorpe also won the booths in Griffith North and Griffith West and came closest to One Nation in other Griffith polling places as well as in Narrandera and Leeton.

One Nation led in all other areas of the electorate.

and Outer Suburban Areas One

Nation made gains even in parts of Albury. In the outer suburb of Springdale Heights, Milthorpe’s two-candidate-preferred margin over Farley narrowed from 57.7-42.3 last year to 50.8-49.2. Closer to the city centre, where incomes and education levels are higher, Milthorpe recorded two-candidate-preferred results above 60 per cent.

The results suggest One Nation could target outer suburban seats with similar demographics at the next federal election, including Labor-held electorates such as Hawke, Bruce and Holt in Melbourne and Werriwa and Macarthur in Sydney, as well as some Coalition seats.

The byelection was held on Saturday following the resignation of the previous member.