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OPEC+ raised oil production quotas for June by 188,000 barrels per day during an online meeting, involving seven key members but excluding the United Arab Emirates after its recent exit. The decision comes against a backdrop of output shortfalls and disruptions from the Mideast war, including blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted the move signals continuity despite internal changes.
247wallst.comSeven OPEC+ members increased oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for June following an online meeting on Sunday. The increase involved Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait and Oman, according to the OPEC+ statement.
The statement made no mention of the United Arab Emirates. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC+ effective Friday and separately announced its withdrawal from OAPEC as of May 1, according to the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The meeting marked the first decision on oil-production quotas since the UAE's departure. OPEC+ had announced 206,000-barrel daily increases in both March and April. The decision followed widespread expectations of an increase similar to those in March and April, with the UAE's portion subtracted.
OPEC+ did not release a public comment on the UAE's withdrawal. No UAE officials were quoted in coverage of the Sunday meeting.
Analyst Priya Walia at Rystad Energy said the group is producing around 73 million barrels per day. She added that the shortfall in OPEC+ output in March was approximately 9 million barrels per day, stemming largely from war-related disruptions.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that raising the quota on paper may not impact actual production given constraints in the Gulf region. He said untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region where exports are affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade that began after the Mideast war started on February 28.
The blockade affects exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Leon said the decision followed the same production path minus the UAE. He added that the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints.
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, noted that Qatar withdrew from OPEC in 2019 and Angola withdrew from OPEC in 2023. She said previous withdrawals by Qatar and Angola were less significant by comparison. Bakr described the UAE's exit as "a big deal" for OPEC.
The UAE's state oil company ADNOC confirmed on Sunday that the company is "accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy" with a planned $55 billion investment on new projects over the next two years. ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027.
The IMF saw the fiscal breakeven oil price at $49 per barrel for the UAE in 2025. Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million and the World Bank estimates Saudi per capita income at $35,000.
Iran is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas. Russia is the second-biggest producer in OPEC+ and has been struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas due to its war in Ukraine. Iraq and Kazakhstan have faced past accusations of surpassing quotas.
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