OPEC+ Raises June Oil Quotas by 188,000 Barrels Per Day After UAE Exit

The withdrawal took effect on Friday. The United Arab Emirates also announced its withdrawal from OAPEC as of May 1, according to the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries.

73 million barrels per day, Priya Walia, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said. The shortfall in OPEC+ output in March was approximately 9 million barrels per day, Walia added. This gap stemmed largely from war-related disruptions.

OPEC+ announced 206,000-barrel daily increases in both March and April. Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that raising the quota on paper may not impact actual production, given constraints in the Gulf region. Iran imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli strikes.

The Mideast war started on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz blockade affects exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Iran is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas. Russia is the second-biggest producer in OPEC+. Russia has been struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas due to its war in Ukraine.

Qatar withdrew from OPEC in 2019, Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, said. Angola withdrew from OPEC in 2023, Bakr added. 5 million barrels per day. ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027.

ADNOC pledged to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years. Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million. World Bank estimates put Saudi per capita income at $35,000.

The IMF saw the fiscal breakeven oil price at $49 per barrel for the UAE in 2025. Bakr described the UAE's exit as 'a big deal' for OPEC during a video conference on the withdrawal.

Previous withdrawals by Qatar and Angola were less significant by comparison, she said. Leon said the silence on the UAE's departure was a sign of tense relations. He noted that the cartel was looking to send 'a two-layer message' that the UAE's exit would not disrupt operations and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite war disruptions.

'While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,' Leon told AFP. Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, where exports are trapped by the blockade. The decision followed widespread expectations of an increase similar to those in March and April, with the UAE's portion subtracted.

'By sticking to the same production path -- just minus the UAE -- it's acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,' Leon said. The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years. ADNOC confirmed on Sunday that the company is 'accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy' with the $55 billion investment.

Differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE stem from demographic and fiscal pressures. The UAE's economy has diversified, with Dubai becoming an offshore financial center.

Saudi Arabia has relied on oil revenues for megaprojects, leading to trade deficits in recent years. There is risk for OPEC+ that other countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan may leave, as they have faced accusations of surpassing quotas. The UAE's withdrawal reflects long-simmering disputes over production quotas and allocation.

The move adds to soaring price pressure from the Mideast war. Seven OPEC+ members met to make their first decision on quotas since the UAE's departure.