Origins and Application of Madman Theory in US Foreign Policy Under Trump and Iran

The madman theory of foreign policy emerged from accounts of President Richard Nixon's strategy during the Vietnam War. R. Haldeman recounted Nixon's statement that he wanted North Vietnamese leaders to believe he might do anything to end the war.

This approach aimed to create uncertainty to pressure adversaries into concessions. Nixon applied the strategy in the context of a prolonged conflict in Vietnam, where US forces faced challenges. The tactic involved signaling potential extreme actions to intimidate opponents without intending to follow through.

It relied on adversaries perceiving the threats as credible.

the Madman Theory Strong powers typically prioritize consistency and predictability in diplomacy, as seen in statements from China's foreign minister.

In February 2026, the minister described China as a reliable force for stability and a source of certainty in an uncertain world. Such language underscores an emphasis on steady influence rather than unpredictability. In contrast, leaders facing declining leverage may resort to more aggressive rhetoric.

The theory is generally employed by non-irrational leaders in difficult situations to deceive opponents about their resolve. Success depends on the perceived seriousness of the threats.

in the Iran Conflict Over seven weeks of conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump combined promises of negotiation breakthroughs with social media threats.

The approach sought to accelerate talks but did not stabilize energy markets or improve US poll numbers. According to The Atlantic, Iranian counterparts appeared less eager for a deal than Trump. Foreign leaders view Trump as prone to miscalculating risks, citing examples like trade disputes with China and events on January 6, 2021.