Paper Projects Sea-Level Rise Threat to Coastal Louisiana

A paper published in Nature Sustainability this month projects that coastal Louisiana could experience 3 to 7 meters of sea-level rise under current warming trends. The authors state that the region has likely crossed a point of no return and that remaining coastal wetlands could be lost, placing over 1 million residents in harm's way.

The paper urges officials to begin planning for managed retreat from low-lying areas decades in advance. It does not specify how or when residents should move but emphasizes that preparation cannot be delayed.

Louisiana ranks as the second-largest seafood producer in the United States after Alaska. New Orleans serves as a central hub for harvesting and selling shrimp, crabs, oysters, catfish, crawfish, and alligators. An assistant professor at Louisiana State University's School of Renewable Natural Resources said loss of New Orleans as a fisheries hub would be devastating for the state's fishing industry.

Severe storms have already damaged ice houses and fuel docks, making operations more difficult.

Census data show the population in coastal Louisiana has fallen four times in the last five years. A sociologist and demographer at Brown University who reviewed the paper said young people are leaving for jobs and opportunities elsewhere. The out-migration is described as multi-causal, though environmental conditions affect available work.

Insurance companies have raised premiums or withdrawn coverage in parts of the state. A policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute said early planning is needed to help residents develop new skills and find employment in safer locations.