Paxton Leads Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate Runoff Poll Ahead of May Vote

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has taken a slim lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the latest polling for the Republican runoff election for U.S. Senate, according to a survey from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

The poll, conducted from April 28 to May 1 among 1,200 likely voters, places Paxton at 48% support compared to Cornyn's 45%, with 7% of respondents still undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Paxton finished behind Cornyn in the initial primary but advanced to the runoff after no candidate secured a majority.

Early voting begins on May 18, with the runoff on May 26, and the winner will face Democratic candidate James Talarico in the November general election.

Immigration and border security emerged as the top issue for 33% of likely voters in the poll, followed by inflation and cost of living at 25%, and election integrity at 22%. Cornyn's backers prioritized inflation at 36% and jobs and the economy at 19%.

Favorability ratings show Paxton viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 43%, while Cornyn has 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable opinions. The poll also found voters split evenly at 43% each on whether Paxton or Cornyn would have a stronger chance against Talarico in the general election, with 14% believing neither would prevail.

A separate April poll from Texas Public Opinion Research indicated Talarico leading Cornyn 44% to 41% and Paxton 46% to 41% in hypothetical matchups.

and Endorsements President Donald

Trump had indicated plans to endorse one candidate and urge the other to drop out but ultimately did not intervene. Paxton offered to withdraw if Cornyn could pass a voter ID bill known as the SAVE America Act, but that did not occur. Just the News noted Paxton's lead in the Hobby School poll, highlighting his positioning ahead of the vote.

President Trump and a political action committee aligned with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Letlow in January. A recent poll showed Fleming at 28%, Letlow at 27%, and Cassidy at 21%, potentially heading to a June 27 runoff if no majority is reached.

Kennedy and his supporters have criticized Cassidy for opposing certain health policy reforms, including blocking the nomination of Casey Means for surgeon general last week. ' Calley Means, a Kennedy adviser, predicted Cassidy's loss and future pharmaceutical industry ties.

' A person familiar with Kennedy's thinking told Axios that 'the gloves are off' in the race.

“The gloves are off," one person familiar with Kennedy's thinking tells Axios. Cassidy's campaign dismissed the influence, with a person close to it stating that such issues are 'entirely an internet phenomenon' and not a factor in polling.”

Amid these primaries, President Donald Trump's approval ratings have reached a new low. Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll on May 5 showed a -23 approval index, with 25% strongly approving and 48% strongly disapproving, leading to overall 41% approval and 57% disapproval.

The index has trended downward since Trump's January 2025 inauguration, shifting from positive in early 2025 to increasingly negative, averaging -14.7 by December and deteriorating further in early May 2026. Other aggregates, including CNN's poll of polls at -29 net and The New York Times at -20 net, confirm the decline.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle responded that the 2024 election, where Trump received nearly 80 million votes, represents the true measure of support. Trump told Newsmax that his poll numbers are among his best ever. Separately, recent court rulings on abortion pill access have highlighted the issue in this midterm election year, as noted by ABC News.

The next director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could impact vaccine policy and health care, influencing the $5.3 trillion industry, according to Fortune.