Poll: 42% of Democrats Believe Butler Trump Assassination Attempt Was Staged
A YouGov survey of 1,000 Americans conducted April 28 to May 4, 2026, shows significant portions of Democrats, independents and Republicans view the three attempts on President Trump as hoaxes. The findings come after Cole Allen's attempt at the White House Correspondents Association dinner in April 2026 pushed Trump past the record for surviving the most assassination attempts in U.S. history.
Substrate placeholder — needs reviewA YouGov poll conducted from April 28 to May 4, 2026, surveying 1,000 Americans found that 42 percent of Democrats believe the assassination attempt on then-candidate Donald Trump by Thomas Crooks in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024 was staged. The survey showed 34 percent of Democrats believe the April 2026 attempt by suspect Cole Allen at the White House Correspondents Association dinner was staged, while 26 percent believe the September 2024 attempt by Ryan Routh at Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach was staged.
Nearly a quarter of Democrats believed all three attempts were hoaxes.
Among independents, 21 percent believe the Butler attempt was staged, 23 percent believe the WHCA dinner attempt was staged and 14 percent believe the golf course attempt was staged. Seven percent of Republicans believe the Butler attempt was staged, 13 percent believe the WHCA attempt was staged and 7 percent believe the Routh attempt was staged.
The Butler attempt occurred on July 13, 2024, when Thomas Crooks fired shots at Trump during a campaign rally. Trump was injured, one attendee was killed and two others were critically wounded. The FBI identified Crooks as the shooter and said it had recovered an AR-style rifle from the scene.
Cole Allen’s attempt took place at the White House Correspondents Association dinner in April 2026. Ryan Routh was identified as the suspect in the September 2024 golf course incident.
The poll did not ask respondents for reasons behind their beliefs, and no publicly released evidence has documented staging of any of the three incidents according to the sources. The original investigations by the FBI, Secret Service and local law enforcement remain the only official accounts referenced.
Key Facts
Story Timeline
6 events- 2024
Thomas Crooks assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania
2 sourcesYouGov poll facts · Unattributed event fact - September 2024
Ryan Routh assassination attempt at Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach
2 sourcesYouGov poll facts · Unattributed event fact - 2025
Surveys on attitudes toward political violence and justification of a Trump assassin released
1 sourceUnattributed 2025 survey facts - April 2026
Cole Allen assassination attempt at White House Correspondents Association dinner
2 sourcesYouGov poll facts · Unattributed event fact - April 28 to May 4, 2026
YouGov poll conducted surveying 1,000 Americans on beliefs about the assassination attempts
1 sourceYouGov facts - 2026-05-11
Poll results and Van Hollen tax proposal reported
1 sourceCurrent date context
Potential Impact
- 01
Tax cut would reduce federal resources by $1.6T over ten years at a time when non-entitlement spending has already declined as share of GDP
- 02
Persistent belief that assassination attempts were staged may deepen partisan divides on political violence
- 03
Van Hollen proposal, backed by Bernie Sanders, could shift Democratic economic messaging toward middle-class tax relief
- 04
Higher taxes on top 0.1% by average $1.2M could fund middle-class savings of $1,500 but faces political hurdles given historical tax revenue trends
Transparency Panel
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