Poll Shows Democrat Leading Republican in 2026 Florida Governor Race

A May 2026 poll conducted by Change Research for Freedom Project USA found Democrat David Jolly leading Republican Byron Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent among likely voters in a hypothetical 2026 Florida governor race. 3 percentage points. After respondents received additional information about the candidates' policy positions and opponent critiques, Jolly's lead widened to 48 percent to 41 percent.

Independents favored Jolly by 18 points, 46 percent to 28 percent. Democratic voter motivation stood at 88 percent compared with 75 percent for Republicans. Seventy percent of respondents said they are falling behind on the cost of living, and 65 percent said Florida is not affordable for their family.

Everyday expenses including gas, groceries, and insurance were cited as major financial pressures.

Other recent surveys showed Republicans ahead.

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll conducted by Cherry Communications from May 1 to May 9 found Donalds leading 47 percent to 39 percent. Stetson University polling from March 15 to April 13 showed Donalds ahead 47 percent to 40 percent, while an Emerson College poll from March 29 to 31 put the Republican up 44 percent to 39 percent.

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket gave Republicans an approximately 78 to 80 percent chance of winning the governorship.