Poll Shows Trump-Backed Challenger Leading Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky Primary
A new poll finds Ed Gallrein leading Rep. Thomas Massie 48.3% to 43.1% in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary. The survey comes six weeks after the same pollster showed Massie ahead. The primary is scheduled for next Tuesday.
msnbc.comA poll released on May 13, 2026 by Quantus Insights shows Trump-backed candidate Ed Gallrein leading seven-term Rep. The survey conducted May 11-12 found Gallrein at 48.3 percent and Massie at 43.1 percent among likely voters, with 7.6 percent undecided.
When leaners are included, Gallrein leads 52.8 percent to 45.1 percent. Among undecided voters, 52.4 percent leaned toward Gallrein while 23.4 percent leaned toward Massie. Six weeks earlier, the same pollster had shown Massie leading 46.8 percent to 37.7 percent with 14 percent undecided.
Quantus noted at the time that an incumbent polling under 50 percent was not ideal but that Massie retained advantages including name recognition and a political identity aligned with the district. The two Republicans have had a public feud for years that intensified during debate over the Epstein files.
Kentucky's 4th District is rated R+18 and gave Trump 67 percent of the vote in 2024. Massie has won general elections by wide margins, taking 65 percent in 2022 and 71 percent in 2016.
West said Massie arranged for her to work in Rep. Victoria Spartz's office so she could be near him in Washington. After their breakup she said she was terminated from that position and that Massie offered her $5,000 in cash to drop a wrongful termination complaint against Spartz.
West also said she was offered a $60,000 settlement tied to the complaint but declined because it included a nondisclosure agreement. She told Axios that Massie said "You're just one person. You're not going to make a difference. " West said the episode made her question Massie's public statements about transparency and victims' rights in connection with the Epstein files.
The primary will be held in six days. The poll indicates that Gallrein held a lead among firm voters and a two-to-one advantage among leaners before the allegations became public this week. That outcome led some outlets to note the continued strength of Trump's support among Republican voters.
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