Polling Shows Mixed Signals in Georgia GOP Gubernatorial Runoff Between Jackson and Trump-Endorsed Jones
A June 7 Cygnal survey found Rick Jackson at 46 percent and Burt Jones at 35 percent in Georgia's Republican gubernatorial runoff. Earlier polls and prediction markets showed mixed results.
NewsweekA Cygnal polling memo released this week showed businessman Rick Jackson leading Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones 46 percent to 35 percent in Georgia's Republican gubernatorial runoff as of June 7. The same memo said the race had moved from a three-point Jones advantage on first-choice ballots to an 11-point Jackson lead, a 14-point swing.
On a first-choice ballot conducted May 28, Jones led Jackson 41 percent to 38 percent.
By June 7 the numbers had reversed, with Jackson at 46 percent and Jones at 35 percent. The memo stated that Jones has not had a single day where he closed the spread. When first-ballot undecided voters were asked to lean, the Cygnal memo reported a 12-point Jackson advantage.
On the combined ballot, Jackson reached 56 percent to Jones's 44 percent. Other recent surveys produced different results. A CivicLens Research poll of 700 Georgia GOP runoff likely voters conducted May 29 to June 1 found Jones ahead 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A JMC Enterprises poll of 600 likely voters taken May 26 and 27 showed Jackson leading 45 percent to 43 percent, with 12 percent undecided and the same margin of error. Prediction markets continued to favor Jones. As of Tuesday evening, Kalshi listed Jones at roughly 58 percent and Polymarket at roughly 61 percent.
In the May primary, Jones received about 39 percent of the vote and Jackson 33 percent, sending both candidates to the runoff. President Donald Trump endorsed Jones. The winner will face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in November.
Georgia supported Trump in 2024. S. Senate seats, while Republicans control the governor's office. Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited. Kemp broke with Trump after the 2020 election by refusing to back efforts to overturn the state's voting results, then later endorsed Trump's 2024 campaign.
In recent weeks, Trump-backed candidates defeated Representative Thomas Massie, Senator Bill Cassidy and Senator John Cornyn in GOP primaries.
