Polymarket Shows Incumbents Leading in Two New York Primaries While One Mamdani-Backed Candidate Is Favored

Bettors on Polymarket have placed wagers on four New York congressional primaries scheduled for Tuesday, including three races featuring candidates backed by socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani. com reported. The prediction market shows five-term incumbent Rep.

Adriano Espaillat with a 57% chance of winning re-election in the 13th House district, which covers northern Manhattan and parts of The Bronx. Darializa Avila Chevalier, the Mamdani-backed Democratic socialist challenger, holds a 45% chance in the same race.

In Brooklyn-Queens District 7, Mamdani-backed Democratic Assemblywoman Claire Valdez is listed with an 83% chance of winning the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep.

Nydia Velazquez. Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso trails with 18% odds. Former city Comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander, also backed by Mamdani, has a 99% chance of winning the Democratic primary in the 10th congressional district, which covers parts of brownstone Brooklyn and lower Manhattan.

Two-term incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman holds a 1% chance. In the 12th District, covering the Upper East and West Sides of Manhattan, Assemblyman Micah Lasher has a 59% chance of replacing retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.

Assemblyman Alex Bores has a 43% chance, while Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of former President John F. Kennedy, has a 1% chance. Other races on the ballot include a Republican primary to replace retiring Rep.

Elise Stefanik in the 21st congressional district. President Trump-backed Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino is running against Assemblyman Robert Smullen, the candidate of the New York Republican establishment and the state Conservative Party. Rep.