Private School Enrollment Falls 30,000 Since VAT on Fees Began

The Independent Schools Council census, scheduled for release later this month, records a 6.6 percent drop in some year groups and a 20,000-pupil decline over the past year. Declines occurred across all regions, with the largest proportional drops in Scotland, Wales, and the northeast of England.

One hundred five schools have closed since the policy took effect, including 15 that merged with other institutions. Specific closures last year included Park Hill School in Kingston, Falcons School in Putney, The Old Palace of John Whitgift School in Croydon, Ursuline Prep in Ilford, London Acorn in Morden, The Cedars School in Croydon, and Oak Heights in Hounslow.

Fewer families are enrolling children at the start of primary school, prep school, or sixth form, according to the figures. The school-age population is already declining due to lower birth rates and Brexit, but the drop appears steeper in the private sector.

The chief executive of the Independent Schools Council said behind the figures are families facing difficult financial decisions and schools working to preserve opportunities parents value. A Department for Education spokesman stated the policy is raising more than initially forecast, delivering over £1.8 billion a year by 2029/30 for the 94 percent of children in state schools.

The spokesman added that more private schools opened than closed in 2025 and that pupil numbers are falling across both sectors due to demographic change. Shadow schools minister Saqib Bhatti said the number of children leaving independent schools is on track to exceed government predictions and is placing additional pressure on the state sector.