Rubio Gains in 2028 Republican Primary Polling as Vance Support Falls

Secretary of State Marco Rubio received 34.6 percent support and Vice President JD Vance received 35.5 percent in a May 24-25 Emerson College Polling survey of 432 likely Republican primary voters. The same poll recorded Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 5.4 percent and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley at 4.6 percent, with 15 percent undecided and a credibility interval of 4.7 percent.

February polling by the same firm showed Vance at 52 percent and Rubio at 20 percent, while an August survey showed Vance at 52 percent and Rubio at 9 percent. Executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball stated that the Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, with Rubio now supported by a six-point margin among voters over 50 and Vance leading among voters under 50.

On the Democratic side, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg received 18 percent, California Governor Gavin Newsom 16 percent, New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11 percent, former Vice President Kamala Harris 10 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro 10 percent, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear 9 percent, with 18 percent undecided.

A White House Communications Director Steven Cheung statement said the administration's mission would not be deterred by media speculation about the vice president and secretary of state. Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro told Newsweek that Rubio has overshadowed Vance on foreign policy and that it remains too early for either to declare a candidacy.