Russian Oil Exports Decline Following Ukrainian Strikes on Ports and Refineries

Ukraine has conducted strikes on Russian oil ports and refineries, resulting in decreased oil exports, according to multiple reports. Al Jazeera reported that these actions have caused Russia to lose an estimated $2.3 billion in oil revenue in March alone, as stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a video address on April 19.

Russia's oil transhipments fell by 300,000 barrels per day in March, and refined products by 200,000 barrels per day, Ukraine's foreign intelligence service reported, citing S&P Global Platts.

In April, Russian oil exports have declined further, potentially reaching their lowest levels since 2023, according to Kommersant. Reuters calculated that Russia has cut crude production by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, based on assessments from five sources.

The U.S. waived sanctions on Russian oil in early March and renewed the waiver on April 13 until May 16, in response to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Sweden's military intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson stated to the Financial Times that Russia would need oil prices above $100 per barrel for the rest of the year to address its budget deficit.

16, Ukraine struck oil loading berths and the refinery at the Tuapse port on the Black Sea, according to Ukraine's General Staff. Additional strikes on Tuapse occurred on April 20 and 21, causing fires, Ukrainian officials reported. Sources told Reuters that the Tuapse refinery halted operations due to inability to ship refined products.

On April 18, Ukraine struck refineries in Sizran and Novokuibyshevsk, about 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, said Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation. The following night, Ukraine targeted the Atlant Aero company, which produces drones, Kovalenko added.

On April 17, strikes hit the Samara refinery and the Gorky refinery, more than 1,000 kilometers and 500 kilometers from Ukraine, respectively, according to Kovalenko. After strikes on Baltic Sea ports Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Leningrad regional Governor Alexandr Drozdenko announced on April 15 that St Petersburg had become a front-line region and planned to recruit reservists for mobile fire groups.

The Institute for the Study of War reported, using open-source data, that Russia gained 381.5 square kilometers with a net loss of 60 square kilometers since March. A poll by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center on April 17 showed Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating fell to 66.7 percent after six weeks of decline from 72.9 percent.

Ukraine has developed mobile fire groups and interceptor drones, with Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announcing on April 17 that private air defence groups at 19 enterprises downed a Shahed drone. Ukraine signed 10-year defence cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, Zelenskyy announced, with requests from 11 countries.

The European Union released a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine on Thursday, following the lifting of a Hungarian veto, according to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. Two-thirds of the loan will support Ukraine's military, and it includes the 20th sanctions package to close loopholes in energy sales restrictions.

Ukraine is set to receive the first tranches as it faces funding shortages in April.